OmmAlpha · VCP Stage Engine V3 Shadow

Read-only live comparison. Nothing on this page writes to production tables or changes ML predictions.

2026-10-01Live scan date

1Rows shadow-tested

0Stage classifications changed

vcp-stage-v3-shadow-1.0Shadow engine

Core V3 rule: pivot comes from confirmed swing resistance preceding the final contraction trough. A fresh breakout spike needs future bars before it can become a confirmed swing, so the pivot cannot chase the breakout upward the next day.

Why shadow mode first: Phase 2A ML was trained on the old detector population. Switching stage/pivot definitions without rebuilding historical signals and retraining would create model-population drift.

Stage distribution

Current production

FAILED: 1

V3 shadow

FAILED: 1

Live stage comparison

Symbol	Old stage	V3 stage	Detail	Old pivot	V3 structural pivot	V3 distance	Pivot evidence	Contractions	Breakout evidence	Confidence
HOMEFIRST close 1,120.30	FAILED	FAILED	FAILED_BREAKOUT	1,248.10 10.24% below	1,248.10 2026-09-08	10.24% below	CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE touches 5	6.3% → 6.2% → 5.3% → 3.1%	confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes	85%

HOMEFIRST · V3 reasons

V3 structural pivot 1,248.10 (CONFIRMED_SWING_RESISTANCE, touches 5)
4 contraction(s); tightening 100%
final contraction 3.1%
10.24% below structural pivot
5D/20D volume 1.05x
day/20D breakout volume 0.68x
confirmed breakout later lost pivot on multiple closes
stage detail FAILED_BREAKOUT

Thresholds: confirm 0.46% · failure buffer 2.73% · pre-breakout zone 6.15% · extended 9.11%